Is there any chance for the short video industry in 2022? Tencent gave the answer. At the "2022 WeChat Open PRO" event, the WeChat video number properly occupied the "core position" in the order of speech, and the live broadcast of the video number also announced that it would support no less than 100,000 high-quality businesses in the coming year. The video number also points out the direction for the eagerly awaited content creators, focusing on supporting the direction of pan-knowledge/pan-life/pan-information.

Although the video number has not published the relevant DAU (daily active users) data, no one dares to underestimate the influence brought by WeChat, just like the applet that was not optimistic about the outside world at first. In just four years, the daily activity of WeChat applet reached 450 million.

Tencent’s Q3 financial report in 2021 shows that the monthly activities of WeChat and WeChat are 1.26 billion, up 4.1% year-on-year. When a product with a monthly life of 1.26 billion is determined to promote a certain business, it is hard to imagine what the business will eventually be like. In the past, it was WeChat WeChat official account, WeChat payment and applet. Now, it is the turn of the video number.

The pressure of video signal is not small.

The pressure on the video number is not small. On the one hand, Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker launched earlier than the video number, and their accumulated resources of users, anchors and businesses are more abundant than the video number.

According to Tik Tok Data Report 2020, as of August 2020, the daily active users in Tik Tok exceeded 600 million. By November, 2020, the total number of financial creators in Tik Tok was 29 million+. By December, 2020, the number of art videos played in Tik Tok exceeded 2.1 trillion, and there were more than 200,000 artists with over 10,000 fans.

Aauto Quicker’s financial report for the third quarter of 2021 shows that the average daily active users of Aauto Quicker App are 320 million, and the average monthly active users are 573 million.

If the video number wants to make achievements, it must catch up with or surpass Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker in terms of daily users, anchors and business resources.

On the other hand, it acts as a starting point for Tencent in the field of short video.

According to CNNIC data, as of June 2021, the number of short video users in China was 888 million, accounting for 87.8% of the total netizens. In March 2021, the average daily usage time of short video applications was 125 minutes.

With the upgrade of smart phones and the improvement of basic network facilities, the mobile Internet industry has become short-video, and short videos are everywhere, not only in social, short video applications, e-commerce, take-away, news and information, etc. Therefore, no one dares to give up short videos completely, which has caused fierce competition in the short video industry.

The video number needs to help Tencent solve:

(1) Continue to improve the daily activities of WeChat;

(2) Improve the usage time of WeChat and let users stay on WeChat;

(3) Let Tencent have a place in the field of short video.

The dominant competition in the Internet industry is product form and traffic, while the hidden competition is the length of stay of users. Is Tik Tok’s biggest impact on WeChat short video and live broadcast? Actually, it’s not, but Tik Tok’s erosion of the usage time of WeChat users. When I was on a train, I saw a user brushing Tik Tok for four or five hours. The core point of WeChat is that users can stay on WeChat continuously, so there will be other forms of evolution, such as advertisements, games and applets. On the contrary, the same is true in Tik Tok. WeChat needs to let users stay on WeChat instead of going to Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker. Therefore, to some extent, the video number is a "war that cannot be lost" for Tencent.

Putting the speech order of the video number in the first place is just one of the signals that WeChat will push the video number. WeChat’s emphasis on the video number is mainly reflected in the product side.

The video number team said that the product logic of the video number is: "As a basic content component, it flows within the WeChat ecosystem". Wechat has made some moves in this regard, for example, linking with Wechat WeChat official account. When the user binds the video number to WeChat WeChat official account, WeChat official account will be displayed on the video number data page, and the video number will be displayed on the WeChat official account data page. When the video number is broadcast live, WeChat official account fans will also see the status of "live broadcast" in WeChat official account.

In order to push the video number, WeChat added the weight of the video number to WeChat WeChat official account, and the content of the video number will also be displayed in the subscription number message list, that is to say, the content of the video number will be displayed not only in the user’s circle of friends, but also to the fans of WeChat WeChat official account.

Where is Tencent Microvision going?

The popularity of the video number just masks the embarrassment of Tencent Microvision.

In April 2018, Tencent revived the previously closed micro-vision and invested hundreds of millions of yuan to subsidize the content creators. Even WeChat tilted the micro-vision. When the user clicked the release button of "Friends Circle", the system would show that shooting with "micro-vision", the daily life of micro-vision once spent hundreds of millions.

However, the launch of the video number made it impossible for Microvision to gain the traffic and influence of WeChat again, and lost the support of a 1.26 billion monthly product, which made it difficult for Microvision to break through again, and also caused the embarrassment of Microvision’s status. Do you support the video number or Tencent Microvision?

In order to prevent direct competition between micro-vision and video number, Tencent differentiated their positioning. Micro-vision is not only a short video, but also a micro-drama and a long video, which is like a model of watermelon video.

Wechat index shows that from April 2021 to now, the index of "micro-vision" is only a fraction of "video number".

According to the internet circle in Claire Kuo, in the last two months, the iOS version of Tencent Microvision App has not been updated. Previously, Microvision App was updated almost every month. Will this be the beginning of giving up Microvision?

For micro-vision, there are two very real problems:

(1) When the video signal is more popular than micro-vision, how can micro-vision keep growing continuously?

(2) How to compete with Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker?

In fact, Tencent has invested a lot of resources in micro-vision. During the Spring Festival in 2020, Microvision invested 1 billion yuan in cash to join the "Red Packet Wars". Previously, Microvision also said that in 2021, it will invest 1 billion yuan and 10 billion flows to support micro-drama.

The huge investment of Tencent Microvision has not achieved remarkable results. According to the data of Qimai, in the last three months, the ranking of "Tencent Microvision" App in the total free list of App Store is behind 100, while Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker are within the top 30. The gap between Microvision and Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker can be seen.

Tencent Microvision is facing the pressure of competing with the video number, on the other hand, it is also facing the pressure that it can’t catch up with Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker in a short time. What should it do at this time? For Tencent, it is not easy to make a choice.

In fact, Tencent has made many attempts in the field of short video. Since 2017, Tencent has launched nearly 15 short video apps one after another. These apps "race horses" with each other to see who can take the lead. Even ByteDance and Aauto Quicker have tried to launch new short video apps. However, no one has made the next "Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker".

Whose problem is it that micro-vision can’t get up and down now? In the end, it will fall on WeChat. Tencent’s successful products in recent years, such as WeChat payment, small programs and other products, are inseparable from the support of WeChat, and the rapid growth of video number users also benefits from the support of WeChat.

Micro-vision is not backed by WeChat, and the probability of success is very low, because it exists as an independent App, not in the WeChat ecosystem. That is to say, either micro-vision surpasses Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker in user experience, or it surpasses the latter in the operational ability of MCN and merchants, while Tencent has no advantages in these two aspects. It can only be effective in the short term by constantly "throwing money", and it will be established by products and operations in the long run. The longer it takes, the worse it will be for micro-vision.

Is the video number still worth doing?

Tencent’s choice of micro-vision does not affect the status of the video number. On the contrary, the video number has now stood in the "C position". For many content creators, one of the biggest questions is, is the video number worth doing? We can look at it from two aspects.

First of all, the traffic of video number. Wechat has not yet fully powered the video number. If Wechat continues to increase its support for video numbers, it is difficult to foresee its future. If it reaches 450 million daily activities like small programs, there is no chance for such a product. No one believes it.

Secondly, is the video number suitable for individuals? Media like me have enjoyed the bonus of WeChat in WeChat official account, but the video number is not suitable for some pictures and texts from the media. On the one hand, graphics and short videos are completely different forms of expression, and the creator will have no chance unless he finds a suitable "posture"; On the other hand, short videos emphasize "the ability of tools", such as editing, sound, speed, shooting skills, materials, etc., which is far from being completed by one person since the media period. Behind "the ability of tools" is the production cost of short videos.

From the perspective of traffic and influence, video number still has prospects, but for individuals, the industry opportunity of video number may not be suitable for "individuals".

According to the observation of the internet circle in Claire Kuo, the current video number still faces a new problem, that is, there is traffic, but it is difficult to realize it. Advertisers have not realized the traffic value of the video number, and the e-commerce system of the video number is also under construction, which requires the creators of the video number to have longer patience.

Of course, there are still opportunities in the short video industry. However, behind the one-vote people making money, there must be one-vote people who will become the "cannon fodder" of the industry. Who will become the "cannon fodder"?

Text/Claire Kuo, WeChat WeChat official account: Claire Kuo’s Internet Circle