They all say that China’s automobile exports rank first in the world. Don’t ignore this key change.
On January 11th, China Automobile Industry Association announced that in 2023, China’s automobile production and sales both exceeded 30 million vehicles for the first time, setting a record high, among which China’s automobile exports reached 4.91 million vehicles, which is expected to become the first automobile exporter in the world.
The position of the world’s first automobile exporter, the United States, Germany and Japan.Have been sitting.. This is the change chart of automobile export volume of three countries in recent years.
Among them,China new energy automobileIt is an important driving force for China’s automobile export. However, some voices think that this achievement is the ceiling of new energy vehicles in China.
In fact, in recent days, such a "cold water" voice is not uncommon.
To answer this question, we need to look at how China’s new energy vehicles opened up the export situation.
Looking back at this rising curve, we can find that the turning point occurred inIn 2021In that year, China exported new energy vehicles.Year-on-year growth of 3 times.
At that time, many foreign media mentioned a background when analyzing this data — —Global manufacturing supply chain is difficult to operate.. Compared with 2019, the global automobile production in 2021 is overall.Down 13%.
When others can’t produce, China can, and when others can produce, China is relatively cheap. In the eyes of many people, this is the "password" for China’s new energy vehicles to successfully go to sea.
This is also the reason why some people think that China’s new energy vehicles hit the ceiling — — Since China’s supply chain is already very complete, what it can provide.There are limits to the cost advantage.As global manufacturers of new energy vehicles are reducing costs, once the cost advantage of China is no longer obvious, it seems that China new energy vehicles can only fall into.Vicious competition of "price war"Medium.
Is this really the case?
When analyzing the export data of new energy vehicles in China, we also found such changes:
In 2019, the average export price of new energy vehicles in China was5000 USD/vehicleIt rose to 2022.22,000 USD/vehicle.
In other words, in recent years, China’s new energy vehicles have really come true."quantity and price rise together".
The price is high, and there are sales. Overseas markets accept the pricing of new energy vehicles in China, which fully shows that the more fundamental reason for China’s new energy vehicles to open up in the global market lies in.Product force.
Where does this product strength advantage come from?
Master Tan saw such a set of data:
Research shows that from 2018 to 2022, the average cruising range of pure electric vehicles in the world.Jump from 230 km to 337 km.
Endurance has always been a big problem that restricts the development of new energy vehicles. There is a word in the automobile industry called"mileage anxiety"That is, consumers are worried that the battery life of new energy vehicles cannot meet their own needs.
So, what is the average cruising range of new energy vehicles in China in 2022? According to the relevant data of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, this figureClose to 600 kilometers.
Not only that, according to the industry’s evaluation, the cruising range of 1,000 kilometers is the real turning point for the use experience of new energy vehicles to equalize fuel vehicles. Now, the cruising range of 1,000 kilometers has become the "standard" for many new energy vehicle enterprises in China.
It will not be easy.
One factor that affects battery life is battery capacity. It seems that as long as the battery capacity is continuously increased, there will be a breakthrough in battery life, but in fact, this is not the case. Battery capacity, safety and durability are like a seesaw. If one of them is pursued excessively, the others will decline.
How does the seemingly contradictory problem, China, give a solution?
Tan Lord noticed such a data:
Among the top ten companies in the world with installed power batteries,China enterprises occupy 6 seats..
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, who has been in the automobile industry for more than 30 years, told Tan Zhu that there are many breakthroughs in the industry in improving the performance of batteries, and there are still many nodes in the key technology chain such as anode and cathode materials, electrolytes, separators and membrane electrodes.Performance improvementSpace.
For example, in order to further extend the batteryEnergy density and safety,There are many solid, sodium ion, high nickel and aluminum air in the industry.New technical route.
In fact, the competitiveness of new energy vehicles in China comes from the fact that the whole industry has entered.differentiationcompeteIn the orbit, everyone’s pursuit of battery life is essentially to study power batteries with larger capacity, smaller volume and higher energy density from different aspects, as well as electronic control technology with better energy consumption, and then to break through the bottleneck of power battery technology.
Such a breakthrough is not only reflected in the cruising range.
China’s new energy vehicles are a new growth point of China’s automobile export. While the scale is increasing, it is necessary to constantly rely on innovative development models to eliminate the risks brought by the continuous improvement of production capacity.
China’s new energy automobile industry has chosen a different path.
Generally speaking, a fuel truck has about30,000Parts, these parts, together with supporting chips and software, constitute a function of the car body. The parts and chips of each function are relatively independent, which leads to the more functions of a fuel truck, the more subsystems are needed. Because the systems are not connected, this leads to the system of the fuel truck."bloated".
Click to view the panorama of automobile industry chain.
This feature also limits the improvement of the function of fuel vehicles.
But the parts of new energy vehicles can be less than half of those of fuel vehicles. This means that compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have higherPower supply capacityWith higherElectrification degreeIt is naturally available.The foundation of intelligence.
More importantly, the era of the development of new energy vehicles is alsoThe era of vigorous development of mobile internet and information technology. There is a saying in China’s new energy automobile industry — — Intelligent new energy vehicle is to install four wheels on the mobile phone.
This sentence shows that in China, Internet thinking and the automobile industry are merging, and this superposition is also rewriting the logic of automobile production:
Many electronic control units of traditional fuel vehicles are integrated into a few power, body, autopilot and cockpit in new energy vehicles.Several systemsAmong them, and after these systems, there is a unified perception and management of vehicle status.Central computing center.
Under such circumstances, the software and hardware of new energy vehicles have achieved close cooperation. For example, the hottest autopilot function at the moment is to rely on sensors and chips carried by vehicles first.Hardware collects information, let againsoftwareAnalyze the surrounding road conditions, and finally hand over the instructions issued by the software to.Vehicle power system executionThe whole process does not require the driver to participate too much.
More importantly, while the vehicle itself is a system, the massive data generated by other car owners during driving can also be passed.Big data, cloud computingAnd other technologies, throughRemote download and upgradeThe way to interact and upgrade with specific vehicles.
It is no exaggeration to say that in the new energy era, cars have changed from those that originally needed human manual manipulation.Pure mechanical products, evolved toIntelligent products controlled by algorithms and data.
Such a change is not available in every country. Among them, the transformation of European car companies is more difficult. An analysis of the automobile industry mentioned that:
Why China and the United States have gone further than other countries in the intelligentization of new energy vehicles, a large part of the reason is that China and the United States have taken the lead in the wave of mobile Internet. If car companies in Europe and Japan understand the intelligence of cars as electrification, then China and the United States understand the intelligence of cars as"Automobileization of Smartphones".
It is precisely because of the relationship with information technology industries such as the Internet.superiorityCarried outSuperimposed integration,The intelligentization of new energy vehicles in China has created new scenes and demands for consumers. If we say that in the era of fuel engine, the possibility of automobile is aggregated in parts, then the automobile in the intelligent era, data and computing power can be extended and created, which will be unimaginable space.
Click on the export amount of new energy vehicles in China on the following picture, and you can find that behind the accelerating growth, a very important part of the reason is the continuous creation of intelligence.New performance, inspired consumers.demand, thus driving the production capacityConstantly expanding.
Click on the spot above to see more information.
At present, European car companies are increasingly turning to China enterprises.buyPure electric modular platform and pure electric production line are used toexploitationYour own new energy vehicle. Standing on the platform built by the development of new energy vehicles in China, European car companies, which have advantages in the traditional car-making field, can complete the turn faster.
This also shows a trend:
Intelligence is being paid more and more attention by automobile manufacturers. With the transformation of global economy to digital and low carbon, the market faced by new energy automobile industry is still a deep blue ocean. And China,Has taken the lead.
In fact, whether it is intelligent or a breakthrough in cruising range, it is a microcosm of the development of new energy vehicles in China. What it represents isSystematic thinking— — existNew energy automobile industry chainAt every node, China has a number of pioneering technological explorations and breakthroughs to expand the depth of industry development.
The three-dimensional development trend constructed by these technological breakthroughs constitutes the extensibility of the industrial chain and supply chain, and this extensibility is also the depth of absorbing and integrating production capacity, and it also brings more room for handling some problems.
From this point of view, compared with the number of automobile exports in China, the unique development model we have explored in this process can not be ignored.