The Voice of the Economy and Huizheng Finance jointly released the ＂China Economic Semi-annual Report＂ to decode the new map of China’s economy and take the pulse of half-year investment as the vane.

Moderator: In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 5.3%, exceeding market expectations. Domestic demand contributed nearly 70%, of which consumption accounted for 52%. So where do you think the driving force of this round of growth is? How can the national counter-cyclical regulation policy accurately activate domestic demand?

Zhang Wenhao: First of all, the growth of 5.3% in the first half of this year is very gratifying. From the internal breakdown, it is mainly the high-tech manufacturing industry that leads such a growth. Secondly, the contribution of consumption is not small, reaching 52.3%, and the resilience including our external demand is also very strong. After all, there was a tariff issue and a trade issue in April in the first half of the year, so even under the influence of such a trade issue, it can still maintain such a resilience, which actually shows that China is an indispensable part of the global economy now, which means that the overall resilience growth is guaranteed. It is not particularly difficult to achieve a growth target of 5% in the second half of the year. If it needs to be stronger or the growth rate can be faster,

On the one hand, the "anti-involution" policy should be sustained. Ultra-long-term treasury bonds can form a continuous flow of capital support and supply for some key points, such as infrastructure construction of infrastructure projects.

The second real estate market is still in a relatively weak stage in the first half of the year. If the port of the real estate market is strengthened in the second half of the year, it will also provide a more powerful layer of guarantee for our economic growth in the whole 25 years.

Moderator: investors are more concerned about the actual domestic demand, but how should the external environment fluctuate in the second half of the year, and which areas are more opportunities?

Zhang Wenhao: The country has a strong motivation to "anti-involution" from top to bottom, and can pay attention to new energy, building materials and traditional cyclical varieties that benefit from the "anti-involution" catalysis and the industry prosperity is expected to improve. The third is to benefit from financial reform and opening up, so we should pay attention to the direction of continuous policy support: On June 18, 2025, Lujiazui Forum 2025 was held in Shanghai, with the theme of "financial open cooperation and high-quality development in the global economic change". The financial supervision department has launched a series of new policies, with the keynote of deepening financial opening to the outside world and increasing scientific and technological financing support. Then the regulatory authorities deepen financial reform and opening up, monetary policy attaches importance to participating in the management of the global monetary and financial system, and policy capital market policy attaches importance to increasing scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation financing support, so as to enhance the attraction of China’s capital market to foreign investment.

Then we can continue to pay attention to the direction of policy support: 1) domestic technological innovation (AI technology/high-end manufacturing, etc.); 2) Industrial innovation and development (new consumption/medical biology, etc.); 3) High-quality offshore enterprises benefiting from the support of offshore financial policies.

Moderator: Deputy Director Sheng Laiyun also stressed the need to mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment. At present, the overall private investment is still slightly reduced by 0.6%, indicating that confidence recovery still needs to be strengthened, and it is necessary to substantially boost the confidence of private enterprises. What practical measures do you think?

Zhang Wenhao: We believe that the promulgation of the new law shows the attitude and helps to further enhance the confidence and expectations of entrepreneurs. The second is the cyclical inflection point of supervision. Since it peaked at the end of 2021, the intensity of supervision tightening implied by the indicators has been significantly relaxed, and it is currently at the most relaxed level in the past five years. The third is the access mechanism for major projects.

We can see that for some investments of some private capital, some new provisions have emerged from the legal level to give private capital confidence. Some of our supervision began to relax, allowing them to develop freely, some innovations and some new attempts, so this actually provided a good hotbed for some investment fields of private capital in the future. As for some details, we will talk about the most eye-catching main line in the first half of this year-such a main line of ——deepseek, which also shows the current manufacturing level of China, and the process of changing from China manufacturing to China Zhizao. Therefore, it is necessary to fit such a market, pay attention to the new AI model, or other technological innovations, and do a timely follow-up.

Moderator: In the first half of the year, the growth rate of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing was significantly higher than the overall level of the industry, and the output of 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles and other products increased by more than 35%. Does that mean that the transformation of new quality productivity in China industry has entered an accelerated period, and what is the core driving force behind it?

Zhang Wenhao: Judging from the performance in the first half of the year, our industrial new quality productivity has indeed entered an all-round accelerated period. The growth of equipment manufacturing industry is 10.2%, and that of high-tech manufacturing industry is 9.5%. Such a growth rate is not only a quantitative breakthrough, but also a qualitative leap. Then we talked about the core driving force earlier. The core driving force is characterized by a four-wheel drive, that is, it drives the overall acceleration of new quality productivity from four angles.

One is a breakthrough in scientific and technological innovation. For example, there have been many major scientific and technological events since the beginning of this year. From the deepseek mentioned earlier, there are also precise efforts in policies. As emphasized earlier, from April and May last year, when the new quality productivity was put forward, to the direction of "anti-involution" this year, we all know that energy is actually a subdivision of the direction of "anti-involution", including why the trend of polysilicon is relatively strong in the past two days, because it is proposed that photovoltaic can no longer be extensively produced, and it should be improved in detail. Is the energy storage efficiency also a precise force on the policy side, as well as an upgrade of market demand and the reconstruction of the industrial chain? For example, in 2023, there was a wave of artificial intelligence in the world, but at that time, it was mainly based on the overseas NVIDIA industrial chain. The better increase of artificial intelligence was in the direction of CPU, which was used to produce some parts in the production server for NVIDIA. There were many uncertain factors overseas, so some domestic science and technology industrial chains would be continuously dug up by the market.

(Note: This article belongs to the commercial information published by Yangguang. com. The content of this article does not represent the views of this website, and it is for reference only. )