The development of service trade presents five major trends.
Zhou Nianli, professor of university of international business and economics National (Beijing) Institute of Opening to the Outside World and China WTO Research Institute.
[Core point of view]
In order to further support the development of service trade, we can start from the following aspects: planning the development direction of service trade from the national level; Actively participate in the formulation of international service trade rules, send out the voice of China, and enhance the right to speak in related fields; Make good use of the advantages of China’s manufacturing industry and actively promote the service transformation of manufacturing industry.
China Economic Times: What are the new trends in the development of service trade? How should we further support the development of service trade in the future?
Zhou Nianli: In recent years, with the development of science and technology, the tradeability of services has been continuously improved. In addition, with the superposition of industrial upgrading and changes in consumer preferences, the proportion of service trade in total trade is increasing. Generally speaking, the development of service trade presents the following main trends.
First, digital service trade has gradually become the main force of service trade. With the development of a new generation of digital technologies represented by artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing and big data, the tradeability of services has been greatly improved, while the cost has dropped rapidly and the application scenarios have been widely expanded. According to the statistics of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the global digital service trade has accounted for more than 60% of the service trade, and will continue to maintain rapid growth. At the same time, the digital transformation has given the service trade a stronger ability to resist risks. Under the background of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the scale of service trade worldwide has fallen sharply, but it has also promoted the practical application of digital technology in the field of service trade. New modes such as video conferencing, online education, telemedicine, and service outsourcing have gradually become the norm, which has also driven the rapid growth of service trade worldwide.
Second, the global service trade rules are constantly being reshaped. Digital trade governance, especially digital service trade governance, has attracted more and more attention. Compared with previous agreements, regional trade agreements such as Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP), US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), as well as special agreements on digital economy and digital trade such as Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA), have expanded the topic scope of digital service trade rules. Among them, the rules related to the governance of cross-border data flow, the opening of digital service market, the facilitation of digital trade, the non-mandatory transfer of digital technology, and the inclusive growth of digital trade have become the focus of attention.
Third, the global service trade structure is constantly being optimized. Although the scale of traditional service trade represented by tourism and transportation services is increasing, its proportion in the total scale of service trade is declining. In contrast, the proportion of knowledge and technology-intensive service trade is increasing. Driven by technological development, intellectual property plays an important role in promoting innovation and development. It is expected that intellectual property-related services will gradually become the protagonist of service trade.
Fourth, barriers to trade in services still exist, and there are certain industry differences. According to the Service Trade Restriction Index (STRI) published by the OECD, the industries with the highest barriers to trade in services are air transport, legal and accounting services, and the lowest are distribution services, audio-visual and freight forwarding. It is still a long way to go to promote the liberalization of service trade.
Fifth, the boundaries between trade in services and trade in goods are constantly merging. Under the background of global economic integration, global value chain drives the development trend of manufacturing service. In order to improve the profit level and alleviate the risk of sales fluctuation, manufacturing enterprises are constantly shifting to the front-end R&D and back-end service links, which is called "manufacturing service". Some enterprises have even completely realized the transformation of business model from producing goods to providing services, which shows that manufacturing services have extended the boundary of service trade and made manufacturing enterprises migrate to the high end of value chain.
In order to further support the development of service trade, we can start from the following aspects.
First, plan the development direction of service trade from the national level. Developed countries in Europe and America generally attach great importance to the development of service trade, and have introduced a series of strategies as guidance, and provided multi-level support such as policies and funds. At present, the development of China’s service trade has made some achievements, and the total scale of China’s service trade has been among the best in the world, but the long-term deficit is the basic feature of China’s service trade. In addition, the data statistics system of China’s service trade is lagging behind, the statistical data of business in the field of service trade is lacking, the data between enterprises and departments cannot be shared in time, and the lack and lag of data at some regional levels are common, which limits the in-depth research on service trade. The central government should make a top-level design for the long-term development of China’s service trade, and at the same time, it should strengthen the overall coordination between local governments and relevant departments to effectively solve the related problems in the development of service trade.
Second, actively participate in the formulation of international service trade rules, give voice to China, and enhance the right to speak in related fields. For the service trade rules, especially the digital service trade, which has become the main force in recent years, its international rules are mainly dominated by the United States and European Union countries. American-led digital service trade rules mainly emphasize the free flow of data across borders and promote the free development of digital service trade. The EU emphasizes the protection of personal privacy, audio-visual exceptions, and strengthening platform responsibilities. It is necessary for China to put forward relevant "Chinese-style" rules for service trade, especially digital service trade governance, on the premise of ensuring basic security interests, based on the industrial foundation and future planning of digital services.
Third, make good use of the advantages of China’s manufacturing industry and actively promote the service transformation of manufacturing industry. Fierce market competition constantly squeezes the profit space of traditional manufacturing industry, and it has also been repeatedly investigated by "double opposition" in the export process. The service transformation of manufacturing industry not only helps enterprises to jump to the high end of value chain and promote industrial upgrading, but also helps to reduce the dependence of industrial production on resources and the damage to the ecological environment. The service-oriented transformation of manufacturing industry can be cut into competitive sub-sectors of enterprises, such as product R&D design, product packaging design and production, establishment of logistics and distribution channels, and even legal and financial services in sub-sectors. In this way, the competitiveness of China’s service industry in the international market will be enhanced and the unfavorable situation of China’s service trade deficit will be alleviated.
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